The Covid-19 epidemic is on the way in Europe: Vaccine availability and vaccination effects in the U.S. are expected to decrease after the summer of October

A new Covid-19 wave seems to be on the way in Europe as the weather gets cooler, with public health experts saying that vaccine fatigue and confusion over types of shots will likely limit booster take-up.

The subvariants — called BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 — appear to be among the most adept yet at evading immunity from vaccination and previous infection, and have now overtaken the BA.5 omicron subvariant that has dominated in the U.S. since the summer.

The European Union had over a million cases in the last week, up 8% from the prior week, despite a dramatic fall in testing. Case numbers are declining around the world.

In the week ending October 4, Covid-19 hospital admissions with symptoms jumped nearly 32% in Italy, while intensive care admissions rose about 21%, compared to the week before, according to data compiled by independent scientific foundation Gimbe.

Some studies have questioned whether the new boosters are any better than the original vaccine in protecting against omicron, but others think they are. According to a statement from Pfizer and BioNTech, the new booster stimulates much higher levels of red blood cells, which in turn can be used to reduce the effects of the original vaccine.

The first real-world data from the CDC shows that an updated booster, using either company’s version, does offer added protection to adults. The analysis found the most benefit was in people who had never had a booster shot and only had two, but they were still more protected.

The lack of a major publicity campaign coupled with the fact that it is all over may make people less likely to engage in healthy activity. I fear that it will be a bit lower.

Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at King’s College London, said: “Another confounder is that quite a high proportion of the population might have also had a Covid episode in recent months.”

In the United States, more than 600 million Covid-19 vaccines have been administered. The new boosters, which target the original virus strain and the Omicron BA.4/5 subvariants, have been slow since they were authorized this fall. Only about 14% of the eligible population has gotten one, and 1 in 5 people in the US are still completely unvaccinated, according to the CDC.

Adam Finn, chair of the group advising the WHO about vaccine preventable diseases in Europe, said that life seems to have gone back to normal because of the financial and war related issues.

Italy’s Gimbe science foundation said the government, soon to be replaced after an election, was ill prepared for the autumn-winter season, and highlighted that a publication on the government’s management of the pandemic had been blocked.

Meanwhile, British officials last week warned that renewed circulation of flu and a resurgence in Covid-19 could pile pressure on the already stretched National Health Service.

Fewer than 1 in 7 eligible people have gotten a new Covid-19 booster, according to CDC data.

“Our message is very simple: Don’t wait. Get vaccinated. Go get vaccinated now; get it before Halloween so you are ready before Thanksgiving and Chrismas and the holidays,” Jha said.

“Vaccination is the best way we know to help prevent the serious outcomes of COVID-19, such as hospitalization and death,” Dr. Peter Marks, FDA’s vaccine chief, told The Associated Press.

Respiratory infections can be spread quickly in winter when people go indoors for holiday celebrations. Rising Covid-19 cases in the UK and Europe may be a signal of what’s to come in the United States. Although the Omicron BA.5 subvariant continues to dominate globally, other variants are beginning to spread, too.

“Personally, I am not a fan of needless suffering and death,” says Dr. Kelly Moore, CEO of Immunize.org, which does vaccination education and advocacy. More than 18 million hospitalizations and 3million deaths were prevented by the vaccine campaign and it saved the country $1 trillion according to an analysis by the Commonwealth Fund.

The study analyzed and extrapolated data from 26.8 million older Americans and others enrolled in a Medicare fee-for-service health plan through the end of 2021. It included data from the Delta and Omicron surges last year.

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People have to make decisions about getting a flu vaccine or the Covid-19 vaccine, and more recently, they have to decide about getting a vaccine at all. The door for misinformation is open when a new decision is made.

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The companies new data stems from two small studies that measured immune responses three to five weeks after the booster dose update, and both found that the updated Covid-19 booster shots appear to work. the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants as the original boosters they replaced. The studies were released as preprints and have not been peer-reviewed or published.

With the holidays around the corner, we hope the updated data will encourage people to seek out a COVID-19 bi-valent booster as soon as they can, in order to maintain high levels of protection against Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sublineages. It is more certain that our ability to quickly update the vaccine to match the most prevalent strains during the season is due to the updated data.

The updated boosters are still being studied in bigger clinical trials by Pfizer and BioNTech, as they test the vaccine against other strains of the virus.

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“This time of year last year we were optimistic. We went into Thanksgiving to wake up to omicron as the wave was coming out of the delta. The feeling last year was similar, Luban says.

BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, had been quickly gaining ground in the U.S. in recent weeks. On Friday, they officially overtook BA.5, accounting for an estimated 44% of all new infections nationwide and nearly 60% in some parts of the country, such as New York and New Jersey, according to the CDC’s estimates. The person has a BA.5 now accounts for an estimated 30% of all new infections nationwide.

Recent laboratory studies indicate that new mutations in the virus’s spike protein appear to make BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 as much as seven times more “immune-evasive” than BA.5.

But even if the new subvariants do surge this winter, most experts think any uptick in infections won’t hit as hard as the first two winter surges of the pandemic.

“We are hoping that the amount of immunity that has been induced either by prior infection or by vaccination” will protect most people from getting severely ill or dying, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House medical advisor, told NPR.

A new study claims that getting re-immunized with the virus can have long-term consequences, such as an increased risk of hospitalization, and even death.

Ziyad Al-Aly is an assistant professor of medicine in Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and the author of the new study. People should do their best to avoid getting re-introduced into the body in the winter.

The bad news is that many people who have been immunised will still get bitten by the new strains according to Dr. Daniel Barouch of Beth Deaconess Hospital in Boston.

The new strains are becoming dominant just as winter is approaching and people will be traveling and gathering for the holidays, factors that had already raised fears about another winter surge.

The size of the surge and whether it will be a nationwide increase are two questions that have to be answered, says Samuel Scarpino, vice president of Pathogen surveillance for the Rockefeller Foundation.

One promising sign is that recent surges in other countries suggest that if the subvariants are involved in a new U.S. wave, any uptick could be short-lived. For example, while France experienced a surge involving the new subvariants, the increase in cases quickly receded.

The last drug that people using to protect themselves from the immune systems of others is likely to be rendered useless because of the new subvariants.

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The Food and Drug Administration’s decision aims to better protect the littlest kids amid an uptick in COVID-19 cases around the country — at a time when children’s hospitals already are packed with tots suffering from other respiratory illnesses including the flu.

–Pfizer’s vaccine requires three initial doses for tots under age 5 — and those who haven’t finished that vaccination series will get the original formula for the first two shots and the omicron-targeted version for their third shot.

The FDA expects data from Pfizer and its partner BioNTech sometime next month to determine whether those tots will need an omicron-targeted booster “and we will act on that as soon as we can,” he said.

To see how much the shots have helped, the researchers from the Commonwealth Fund and the Yale School of Public Health created a computer model with demographic information, people’s risk factors, the dynamics of infections and general information about vaccinations.

“Given the emergency of highly transmissible variants and immune-evading variants like Omicron, it is a remarkable success and an extraordinary achievement,” said Galvani, founding director of the Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis.

The CDC recommends masking for anyone who’s on public transportation. It suggests that people wear one in other public places in high Covid-19 communities. People who are at high risk of severe Illness are urged to wear masks even in areas with a medium level of population.

It has been difficult to get people to get their flu vaccine because they are tired of hearing about shots, according to public health leaders.

Trying to persuade people to do something new can add to the hesitancy that’s already become so pervasive and make them less likely to come in at all. People seem to prefer getting a flu vaccine at an appointment than getting it at a Covid-19 vaccine booster.

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There is a saying that says familiarity breeds contempt. Well, perhaps that’s a bit strong, but familiarity does seem to breed a certain nonchalance,” he said.

“We still have plenty of people in this country who do not believe in the flu or the Covid vaccine that we haven’t been able to win over,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, chief executive officer of the National Association of County and City Health Officials. Flu kills many people in our country, it causes a lot of illnesses and it attacks people of all ages. We have to pay more attention to it.

But that double threat didn’t materialize. People have let their guard down due to the mild flu seasons for the past two years.

Hackell thinks that it would be different if the vaccine was similar to the one used forMeasles. “But we have to compare it to Covid and flu vaccines, where the efficacy is less than dramatic, and when there’s a lot of controversy going on, I think that spills over.”

“I think there’s fatigue, moral injury, call it burnout on the part of providers as well. Hackell said that they are not pushing it as hard. “It gets very difficult to keep having these unproductive conversations over and over again. I don’t know if the time is right to have long discussions about the respiratory illnesses in your office, since it’s packed with sick kids.

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But despite the convenience of getting both shots at once, there’s evidence that linking the two isn’t the best way to boost coverage rates for either.

“We give multiple vaccines to our kids at the same time, but we haven’t typically done that for adults,” said Tan, former liaison to the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee for the American Medical Association.

Tan said that patient confidence is usually given by direct interaction with the health care provider, such as a doctor, pharmacist or clinician. A patient is getting a vaccine because of a private conversation they had with their provider. It is a testimony to our health-care providers.

The message may finally be sticking. At Walgreens locations, co-administration of the flu and Covid-19 vaccine is 70% higher this year than it was last year, according to data shared with CNN.

Four weeks ago we were witnessing a continuous decline, and now at least we have the rise. “But while I’m sounding positive, I want to remind us all that we need to be better than we currently are.”

When you thought that it was safe for a holiday visit with your Aunt Mary as long as she is healthy, it turned out to be not so.

The availability of the protective measures, tests and treatments that are available is what health officials want people to know so that they can prevent a repeat of the Covid-19 surge of the past two winters.

In the first week of December, the US had the most Covid-19-related deaths in months. Even though vaccines and treatments are available, the CDC reported over 3000 deaths for that week.

The White House said last week that the Covid-19 season doesn’t have to be like last winter, when there was a large spike in cases with the Omicron coronaviruses variant.

White House Covid-19 response coordinator Dr. Arish Jha said at the briefing that they have the know-how to manage the situation.

The Biden administration has been in daily contact with state and local public health leaders, monitoring hospital levels, he said. And the federal government has medical personnel, supplies and other resources ready if states and communities need them.

More Americans will get access to free tests now that Covidtests.gov is reopening for a limited time. Each household in the US can order up to four at home tests that ship as early as next week.

People with chronic conditions and those over 50 should be evaluated for treatment if they test positive for Covid-19, Jha said on CNN on Thursday.

Paxlovid works best if started within days of when symptoms appear, and can reduce a person’s risk of being hospitalized or dying.

If people were to use those tools, we could get through the season, because of how widespread and available those tools are.

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In Philadelphia, when schoolchildren come back from the winter break, they will be required to wear masks for 10 days as a “proactive measure” to reduce the spread of Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses, a district spokesperson said.

New bivalent COVID booster shots are more effective at reducing risk of hospitalization than boosters of the original vaccines, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in two new studies Friday.

“I do think it’s going to be an uphill battle,” Jennifer Kates, senior vice president and director of global health and HIV Policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told NPR in September. “I do think it’s a tough sell just because of where we are on this point in the pandemic.”

The elderly woman is aware of the dangers of Covid-19, flu and other colds that are sweeping the United States, and was prepared to deal with them.

Only about 13% of all reported cases in the US have been among people 65 and older, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But about half of all hospitalizations and three-quarters of all deaths have been in this age group.

During the first winter surge in 2020, when Covid-19 swept through nursing homes, there was always a three-fold difference.

“Right now we have an immunity wall built up against the Omicron family – between shots and prior infections and combinations thereof – that seems to be keeping younger folks in pretty good stead. But the immune systems of people of advanced age are not as strong,” Topol said.

Younger adults who are immunocompromised are also likely experiencing disproportionately severe effects of the latest wave, he said, but there isn’t sufficient data to understand trends in that population as well.

New variants that are more immune evasive and relatively low utilization of treatments like Paxlovid may have played a role in the rising hospitalization rate among seniors, Topol said.

Stewart said she still keeps an eye on Covid-19 trends, but is easing back on personal mitigation measures. She’s found a balance between caution and contentment that she says works for her – but getting her vaccines is really what helps her feel safest.

She said that she was a bit more careful than six weeks before because she was paying attention to the fact that it was picking up. In regards to the pickup, I have not reverted to how I was handling it a couple of years ago, but I am more aware of who I am around and may be wearing my mask a little bit more.

A home test was negative for Covid-19 and confirmed by another test at a health care provider’s drive through, which brought some relief, she said. But even if it was positive, knowing she was vaccinated and boosted gave her reassurance.

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“It’s very, very concerning,” said Dr. Preeti Malani, a physician at University of Michigan Health who specializes in infectious disease and geriatric medicine.

“There’s a sizable number of people who actually got previous boosters who have not gotten this one and I worry that there’s confusion, there’s misinformation. I want to say to seniors, and to everyone: if you have been boosted, go get boosted.

“The truth is that anyone can get this,” Malani said. If you are older, the more likely you are to be hospitalized, and the less likely you are to die.

Infectious diseases like Covid-19 don’t spread differently among seniors than they do among younger people, experts say. Instead, family, friends and the broader community are often the ones bringing Covid-19 to seniors – who are more likely to suffer more severe consequences.

The Association of Immunization Managers says there was a large effort to get the vaccines to the people in nursing homes. That doesn’t work anymore, she says, not just because of low demand and lack of infrastructure, but because everybody is on a different schedule in terms of when they need a booster. “You go there one day and you might vaccinate a handful of people,” she says.

We were hoping that the vaccine would prevent transmission. We don’t have a vaccine that does that, but it does reduce transmission and it does reduce severe outcomes,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists.

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We love to go to baseball games. We are very supportive of the team, but there is a lot of risk. We take the ferry over and on that ride over, you’re riding very closely with a lot of other people. We are close to a lot of unknown people, so we go to the ballpark. “It’s too risky still.”

Malani said she talked to a friend of hers who seemed to be requesting permission to join her family this holiday season. She was excited to celebrate in- person with her family but anxious about not letting her guard down amid the respiratory virus season.

“It’s about finding a balance, because the viruses are dangerous, but so is isolation,” she said. There is always a way forward, for now it is through vaccination.

“It’s just really critical that [people] — especially those at high risk — understand the value of getting vaccinated and making sure they stay up to date on their boosters,” Hannan says.

Baur works with community health workers who are out in Maryland, talking to people about vaccinations and it’s slow. “I don’t believe we or anyone else has found any particular message or fact that is really changing hearts and minds,” Baur says.

The mass vaccination system that popped up during the pandemic isn’t how most adults get vaccinated, she points out. As those systems close it may be time to give the focus back to health care providers who are able to hear and answer patients’ questions, and who can have a relationship with patients.

There are a lot of ways to combat vaccine hesitancy, including focusing on misinformation or politicization or trust in public health. Moore of Immunize.org decided to look at how to improve the vaccination experience.

She says that a quarter of adults are afraid of needles. How many people refuse to come in for vaccinations because they don’t want it, don’t have time or don’t think it works? For how many of them is that really just an excuse?”

She says the Autism Society for America has been pioneering strategies to help families and kids with autism get vaccinated, since it can be especially stressful and upsetting for people with autism. Put on headphones, listen to music, or use a plastic “shot blocker” to make the shot hurt less, they have some simple, low-cost ideas.

I recently tried a variation of this when I took my 7-year-old daughter, Noa, to get her bivalent booster. There is more fear of needles among kids than there is among adults. I bought an over-the-counter lidocaine patch (marketed for back pain) at the drugstore and cut it to fit her bicep. I stuck it on her upper arm about 30 minutes before we left. I drew an outline on the patch of her skin, so the immunizer was able to give her the shot. Noa said the shot didn’t hurt — she was thrilled and proud that she hadn’t cried. And she asked if we could use it for every shot from now on.